The following is a discussion of how to calculate
the Genesis probabilities and how they would relate
to a typical event most all of us have participated in.
First off, let's review where the 208,000,000:1 odds came
from and what the TIMING "bin" structure looks like:
What? Genesis "God day" Science Match?
==============================================================
------------------------------- - 12 Byr Yes
Universe Start, dividing 1 - 11 Byr
------------------------------- - 10 Byr
2 - 9 Byr
------------------------------- - 8 Byr
3 - 7 Byr
------------------------------- - 6 Byr
Moon and Sun, dividing 4 - 5 Byr Yes
------------------------------- - 4 Byr
First Ocean life 5 - 3 Byr Yes
------------------------------- - 2 Byr
Man and land animals 6 - 1 Byr Yes
------------------------------- ~ 0 (<10,000 yrs ago)
God resting from work 7 NOW
Each of the Genesis days or "God days" are 1 out of 7 available
slots or BINS for certain Genesis TIMING to have occurred in and
from the previous article you see the TIMING falling into BINS
with the following probabilities:
Age of sun chance is 1/7
Age of moon chance is 1/7
Age of first ocean life chance is 1/7
Age of univ chance is 1/7
Age of man chance is 1/7
Age of animals chance is 1/7
Age of final land (*) chance is 1/7
Initial earth matter chance is 1/7
Dividing energy/matter chance is 1/6 (when universe made)
Dividing energy/matter chance is 1/6 (when sun was formed)
* see previous article
So how do you calculate the probability and what is the
justification for saying "208,000,000:1 odds of God
being the source"?
As it turns out, it may be best described by showing a
simple coin toss game at the arcade but modified to
highlight the Genesis setup.
A similar coin toss game is as follows:
---------------------------------------
You walk into an arcade and notice a sign saying
===============================================
We'll pay you $50,000,000 if you win this game.
===============================================
You then see 7 cups over a table top and nobody playing. So
you ask around, find the owner and he describes the rules.
The rules are:
To play the coin toss game, you are given 10 coins and
are then blind folded and lead into the room where the
game is. You're told to toss each coin and if the coin
lands in the the right bin, you win one of the 10 tosses.
You'll know you won a particular toss afterwards since
the RIGHT bin is the one that is bottomless so the
coin can fall through to the table top. If the coin
goes into the WRONG bin, you'll hear it clank in the
bottom of that bin cup and it won't hit the table top.
To be completely fair about it, they also MOVE the correct
bin each time regardless of whether or not you got the
right bin previously.
There is NO WAY for you to know how far to toss each coin
or where the right bin is on each toss.
The bins look like this:
COIN tossed ------->>> 0
\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /\ /
BINS |__| | | |__| |__| |__| |__| |__|
| |
TABLE -----------------------------------------------
(notice how the 2nd BIN will let the coin fall through)
The coin can drop into any of the SEVEN bins. The chance
that you'll toss the coin into the right bin is basically
Chance of correct toss = 1 out of 7
= 1/7
= 0.143
= 14.3%
We've all played similar coin toss games and we all know
that it's pretty difficult to keep hitting the right bin
even when you can see which one is right. But with a
blind fold, you now realize that most of the time, you'll
end up getting the wrong bins.
The probability of getting a WRONG bin is simply:
= 1 - probability of getting the right one
= 1 - 0.143
= 0.857
= 85.7% chance of getting the wrong bin on each toss.
But this arcade owner is playing for keeps since he then
makes it about HOPELESS by telling you that you MUST have
every one of >>> ALL 10 COINS <<< hit the right moving
bin or you get NOTHING.
(he won't get many players wanting to play this game)
You basically have that same 14.3% chance of getting the
right bin each and every time you toss a coin. Your
chances of getting all 10 coins correctly placed drops
significantly each and every coin you try.
In other words, each chance of being right probability
(1 out of 7) MULTIPLIES since for just TWO tosses, the
results could have been any of the following 49 cases:
1,1 2,1 3,1 4,1 5,1 6,1 7,1
1,2 2,2 3,2 4,2 5,2 6,2 7,2
1,3 2,3 3,3 4,3 5,3 6,3 7,3
1,4 2,4 3,4 4,4 5,4 6,4 7,4
1,5 2,5 3,5 4,5 5,5 6,5 7,5
1,6 2,6 3,6 4,6 5,6 6,6 7,6
1,7 2,7 3,7 4,7 5,7 6,7 7,7
( numbers above are "toss result #1", "toss result #2" )
To have WON in this "two toss" game, the correct tosses
might have been oh say: 2,5 which was 1 out of the 49
cases available.
So the end probability for just those 2 cases:
Chance of correct 2 tosses = 1 out of 7*7
= 1 out of 49
= 1/49
= 0.0204
So just to see the trend, let's go to a 3 toss game:
1,1,1 1,2,1 1,3,1 1,4,1 1,5,1 1,6,1 1,7,1
1,1,2 1,2,2 1,3,2 1,4,2 1,5,2 1,6,2 1,7,2
1,1,3 1,2,3 1,3,3 1,4,3 1,5,3 1,6,3 1,7,3
1,1,4 1,2,4 1,3,4 1,4,4 1,5,4 1,6,4 1,7,4
1,1,5 1,2,5 1,3,5 1,4,5 1,5,5 1,6,5 1,7,5
1,1,6 1,2,6 1,3,6 1,4,6 1,5,6 1,6,6 1,7,6
1,1,7 1,2,7 1,3,7 1,4,7 1,5,7 1,6,7 1,7,7
(another 49 cases for first toss being 2)
(another 49 cases for first toss being 3)
(another 49 cases for first toss being 4)
(another 49 cases for first toss being 5)
(another 49 cases for first toss being 6)
(another 49 cases for first toss being 7)
For example, to win in this 3 toss game, you'd have to
toss those three as 6,5,3 and for that, the probability
of you getting the coins in the right bin over those
3 tosses is:
Chance of right 3 tosses = 1 out of 7*7*7
= 1 out of 343
= 1/343
= 0.00291
See how the terms MULTIPLY given that you have to
get all the tosses into the right BIN?
It's much the same thing for the Genesis account. Moses
had to GUESS the correct BIN (or MILESTONE, or "God day"
or period of time) for each TIMING item to occur in.
Moses did so in much the same way you'd do with the
coin toss above, such that:
Toss 1 -- 7 bins
Toss 2 -- 7 bins
Toss 3 -- 7 bins
Toss 4 -- 7 bins
Toss 5 -- 7 bins
Toss 6 -- 7 bins
Toss 7 -- 7 bins
Toss 8 -- 7 bins
Toss 9 -- 6 bins
Toss 10 -- 6 bins
So to calculate the probability of Moses "guessing" right:
Chance of 10 right guesses = 1 out of 7*7*7*7*7*7*7*7*6*6
= 1 out of 208,000,000
= 1/208,000,000
= 0.00000000481
That's a combined probability of 1 out of 208,000,000
for Moses to get them all right, all into the proper
BIN on EACH "guess".
Or when looking at the Genesis account as a PREDICTOR in
that Moses claimed God told him when certain things happened:
Chance Moses PREDICTED bins correctly
= (1 - 1/208,000,000)*100%
= 99.9999995%
Since Moses didn't say he was predicting, but instead was
just repeating what God told him, the chances are:
=============================================
99.9999995% that God gave the Genesis account
=============================================
Obviously God gave the account.
(and the odds will go even higher once oxygen is confirmed
to have been around during the first 2 billion years after
the big bang)
God made it all, Jesus died for our sins.
Note: The above information was written by John P. Boatwright and is freely given. The information is simply my opinion based on how I perceive the content discussed. Anyone reading such should use their own judgement as to whether or not the information has any value to them. You may copy portions of the above opinions as long as a reference to this page is included and no text within said portion is altered. If copied to another medium other than the internet, include the entire text. The above content may change over time.
Best wishes.